Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition: The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds?

Abstract

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect averages over… (More)
DOI: 10.1080/03640210802353016

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