Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

@article{Morris2020OptimalNA,
  title={Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control},
  author={Dylan H. Morris and F. W. Rossine and J. Plotkin and S. Levin},
  journal={arXiv: Populations and Evolution},
  year={2020}
}
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for control measures that reduce the epidemic peak ("flattening the curve"). Here we derive the optimal time-limited intervention for reducing peak epidemic prevalence in the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We show that alternative, more practical interventions can perform nearly as well as the provably optimal strategy. However, none of these strategies are robust to implementation errors: mistiming the start of the… Expand

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