Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting

  title={Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting},
  author={Akhmed Akhmedov and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya},
  journal={Institutional \& Transition Economics eJournal},
This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy, Russia, finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using the comprehensive list of Russia's regional elections and regional monthly panel data between 1996 and 2003, we find that: (1) budget cycle is very sizable and short-lived: large expansion and contraction in fiscal spending occur within two months of elections on both sides; (2) the… 
Electoral Cycles and Democratic Development ^
We examine the relationship between political development and electoral economic cycles. Recent work suggests that in OECD countries the policy uncertainty associated with elections can lead to
Based on the political cycles theories, this paper aims to demonstrate how the accounting indicators can be related to an “opportunistic” behavior of the governors, seen as one who is directed to
The literature on political business cycles suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections. The literature on vote and popularity functions
Elections, Uncertainty, and Economic Outcomes *
Various theories predict an opportunistic political business cycle, whereby incumbents induce short-term economic expansions in the pre-election period, yet empirical studies do not find such cycles
Political Budget Cycles and Reelection Prospects
This paper considers the presence of political budget cycles in Greece’s municipalities. We construct a new dataset from primary sources and we find strong evidence of pre-electoral manipulation
The Political Budget Cycle is Where You Can't See it: Transparency and Fiscal Manipulation
We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. The recent political economy literature on electoral cycles
Political Risk, Information and Corruption Cycles: Evidence from Russian Regions
Political budget cycles are a well-established phenomenon in which opportunistic politicians systematically adjust public policies prior to elections in order to attract a higher number of votes. We
This paper provides a review of recent developments in the theory and evidence of political budget cycles. The theoretical and empirical research on issues of political budget cycles there were many


Do Changes in Democracy Affect the Political Budget Cycle? Evidence from Mexico
The previous empirical literature in opportunistic election cycles attempts to identify whether there is a significant impact of the election calendar on economic policy. The econometric analysis
Political Cycles in OECD Economies
This paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of GNP growth, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and of changes of governments. The sample include the
Conditional Political Budget Cycles
This Paper uses a large new panel data set to examine the relationship between elections and fiscal policy. We find clear evidence of political business cycles in macroeconomic policy: spending
Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come from?
Whereas a political budget cycle was once thought to be a phenomenon of less-developed economies, some recent studies find such a cycle in a large cross-section of both developed and developing
Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles
Prior to elections, governments (at all levels) frequently undertake a consumption binge. Taxes are cut, transfers are raised, and government spending is distorted towards highly visible items. The
Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa
Political business cycle (PBC) theory and empirics typically assume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical work on PBCs turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence, this
Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of ‘Chudar’
Political business cycle theories tend to focus on one policy instrument or macroeconomic lever at a time. Efforts to find empirical evidence of opportunistic business cycles have turned up rather
Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy
The relationship between political and economic cycles is one of the most widely studied topics in political economics. This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of elections, the ideological
Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections
Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election. Using an instrumental variable (IV)