• Corpus ID: 238215234

On the reliability of published findings using the regression discontinuity design in political science

@inproceedings{Stommes2021OnTR,
  title={On the reliability of published findings using the regression discontinuity design in political science},
  author={Drew Stommes and Peter M. Aronow and Fredrik Savje},
  year={2021}
}
The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it the position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that the causal effects can be estimated accurately with limited data. In this paper, we highlight that estimation is particularly challenging with the RD design and investigate how these challenges manifest themselves in the empirical literature. We collect all RD… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Unconfounded but Inflated Causal Estimates†

Convincing research designs make empirical economics credible. To avoid confounding, quasi-experimental studies focus on specific sources of variation. This could lead to a reduction in statistical

Evaluating the Minority Candidate Penalty with a Regression Discontinuity Approach ∗

Do parties face an electoral penalty when they nominate candidates of color? We use a regression discontinuity design with state legislative election data from 2018 and 2020 to isolate the effect of

The how and why of Bayesian nonparametric causal inference

TLDR
A comprehensive overview of Bayesian nonparametric applications to causal inference is presented and it is argued that most of the time it is necessary to model both the selection and outcome processes.

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 70 REFERENCES

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF TREATMENT EFFECTS WITH A REGRESSION-DISCONTINUITY DESIGN

Ž. THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY RD data design is a quasi-experimental design with the defining characteristic that the probability of receiving treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one

Assessing the External Validity of Election RD Estimates: An Investigation of the Incumbency Advantage

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is popular because it provides a design-based estimate of the incumbency advantage. However, the RD estimate is “local”: it only identifies the effect in

Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics

The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression

On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from over 40,000 Close Races

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election

Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs

In the regression‐discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators

Interpreting Regression Discontinuity Designs with Multiple Cutoffs

We consider a regression discontinuity (RD) design where the treatment is received if a score is above a cutoff, but the cutoff may vary for each unit in the sample instead of being equal for all

Power calculations for regression-discontinuity designs

TLDR
Two commands are introduced, rdpow and rdsampsi, that conduct power calculations and survey sample selection when using local polynomial estimation and inference methods in regression-discontinuity designs and provide companion R functions with the same syntax and capabilities.

Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions

In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below

Testing for Publication Bias in Political Science

If the publication decisions of journals are a function of the statistical significance of research findings, the published literature may suffer from “publication bias.” This paper describes a

Quality-Based Explanations of Incumbency Effects

Empirical studies of incumbency effects continue to accumulate, but progress in explaining these findings is modest. I introduce a simple framework that clarifies how differences in candidate
...