On the psychology of prediction

  title={On the psychology of prediction},
  author={Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky},
  journal={Psychological Review},
In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. Two classes of prediction are discussed: category prediction and numerical prediction. In a categorical case, the prediction is given in nominal form, for example, the winner in an election, the diagnosis of a patient, or a person's future occupation. In a numerical case, the prediction is given in numerical form… 

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