On the possibility and reliability of predictions based on stochastic citation processes

@article{Glnzel1997OnTP,
  title={On the possibility and reliability of predictions based on stochastic citation processes},
  author={Wolfgang Gl{\"a}nzel},
  journal={Scientometrics},
  year={1997},
  volume={40},
  pages={481-492}
}
A statistical model for citation processes, a particular version of a non-homogeneous birth process, is analysed in the context of predictions of future citation rates. Important properties of the process were already studied by the author in earlier papers. Although the applicability of the model was demonstrated by several examples, practical aspects of predictions and questions of statistical reliability were not tackled so far. The present study is focused on the demonstration of the… CONTINUE READING

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