On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

@article{Akaev2012OnTD,
  title={On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts},
  author={Askar Akaevich Akaev and Victor A. Sadovnichy and Andrey V. Korotayev},
  journal={The European Physical Journal Special Topics},
  year={2012},
  volume={205},
  pages={355-373}
}
The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic… Expand

Figures and Tables from this paper

Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years: A Forecast
The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in theExpand
Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development
In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linearExpand
Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillationExpand
Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies
Our review of some modern trends in the development of energy technologies suggests that the scenario of a significant reduction of the global oil demand can be regarded as quite probable. Such aExpand
Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future
We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS)Expand
A Wave of Global Sociopolitical Destabilization of the 2010s: A Quantitative Analysis
ABSTRACT After the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011, explosive global growth was observed for the majority of indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in all parts of the World System. InExpand
Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics
Data analysis with log-periodical parametrization of the Brent oil price dynamics has allowed to estimate (very approximately) the date when the dashing collapse of the Brent oil price will achieveExpand
Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?
It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kondratieff dynamics was generatedExpand
World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization
The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international andExpand
Technological development and protest waves: Arab spring as a trigger of the global phase transition?
Abstract There are grounds to conclude that in 2011–2012 the World System experienced to some extent a phase transition to a qualitatively new state of global protest activity. This phase transitionExpand
...
1
2
3
4
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 42 REFERENCES
Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena asExpand
The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction
We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-upExpand
Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth
We analyze the growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide and human population, by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) powerExpand
Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasingExpand
Technological revolutions and financial capital : the dynamics of bubbles and golden ages
This work traces the long-term historical relationship between technical change and the behaviour of financial markets. Based on Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations and withExpand
Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems
Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems, by Didier Sornette, 2003, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Consider the following events: a pressure tank within aExpand
Large financial crashes
We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group modelExpand
Significance of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes
We clarify the status of log-periodicity associated with speculative bubbles preceding financial crashes. In particular, we address Feigenbaum's [2001] criticism and show how it can be rebuked.Expand
A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution
The fact that up to the 1960s world population growth had been characterized by a hyperbolic trend was discovered quite some time ago. A number of mathematical models describing this trend haveExpand
CONFRONTING A SURFEIT OF PEOPLE: REDUCING GLOBAL HUMAN NUMBERS TO SUSTAINABLE LEVELS An essay on population two centuries after Malthus
It has become increasingly evident over the past several decades that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends: (1) moderate to conservative demographic projections thatExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...