On the Predictive Efficiency of Past Performance and Physical Ability: The Case of the National Football League

@article{Lyons2011OnTP,
  title={On the Predictive Efficiency of Past Performance and Physical Ability: The Case of the National Football League},
  author={Brian D. Lyons and Brian J. Hoffman and John W. Michel and Kevin J. Williams},
  journal={Human Performance},
  year={2011},
  volume={24},
  pages={158 - 172}
}
This study investigated the criterion-related validity of past performance and physical ability tests over time in a physically demanding context, the National Football League (NFL). Results suggested that an indicator of past performance, collegiate performance, engendered a stronger relationship with future NFL performance than a variety of physical ability tests administered during the NFL Combine. Unlike physical ability, past performance remained a valid predictor across four years of the… 

Exploring Individual Antecedents of Performance Error: False Starts in Collegiate Football

ABSTRACT We explored antecedents of performance errors, where such errors are defined as unintended deviations from specified standards. The context of our examination was collegiate football, with

National Scouting Combine Scores as Performance Predictors in the National Football League

The current study suggests that combine tests are modest predictors of future performance and should the NFL change the current NSC testing battery, the addition of horizontal and vertical power measurements, as well as position-specific skill tests are recommended.

Grip Strength and North American Collegiate Football Performance Indicators

Football athletes are often tested in their ability to display high levels of strength and power to determine their sporting prowess. One indicator of total body strength in the general population is

Citius, Altius, Fortius; Is It Enough to Achieve Success in Basketball?

Results show that the Combine test does not predict draft position, with the exception of hand width and height in frontcourt players, and standard vertical jump and running vertical jump.

The validity of small-sided games in predicting 11-vs-11 soccer game performance

A large number of elite youth players of a professional soccer academy participated in 11 to 17 small-sided games and six 11-vs-11 soccer games, and physiological and motor abilities were assessed using a sprint, endurance, and agility test.

Methodological Issues in Soccer Talent Identification Research

It is suggested for future research to consider the use of individual soccer criterion measures, to adopt representative, high-fidelity predictors of soccer performance, and to take restriction of range and the base rate into account.

Selection procedures in sports: Improving predictions of athletes’ future performance

This paper compares the popular clinical method with the actuarial approach, and why the latter approach often leads to superior performance predictions, and discusses the "signs" and the “samples” approaches.

Success or Bust? An Analysis of Draft Position and NFL Success

The National Football League (NFL) draft is a reverse-order event that positions the teams with the worst record in the NFL to draft first, thus enabling those teams to get the best talent from the

The Agency of Numbers: The Role of Metrics in Influencing the Valuation of Athletes

A number of authors have noted the increasing use of policies that emphasise accountability and measurable progress in sport. One component of these policies that has received less attention is the

Sports selection in martial arts based on the harmonic stability of results at competitions

The aim of the study: to develop a new approach to sports selection in martial arts based on the analysis of the harmonic stability of the results of fighters in competitions during a sports career.

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 46 REFERENCES

Not Much More Than g? An Examination of the Impact of Intelligence on NFL Performance

The purpose of this study was to determine the efficiency and equity of general mental ability (GMA) in a nontraditional employment setting—professional football. The National Football League (NFL)

Development of physical ability tests for police officers: a construct validation approach.

A construct validation approach was followed to affirm that 8 physical ability test events were significantly related to two important constructs underlying the job performance of police officers:

THE VALIDITY OF ISOMETRIC STRENGTH TESTS

Six studies using isometric strength tests as part of their selection procedures are reported. The studies represent seven jobs across various industries with a total sample size of 1,364

Protective Service Physical Ability Tests: Establishing Pass/Fail, Ranking, and Banding Procedures

Physical ability tests have undergone intense scrutiny in the courts since the 1970s. A recent survey of court-disputed police and fire physical ability tests showed a successful defense rate of less

Cognitive ability predicts objectively measured counterproductive work behaviors.

This study presents the first focal investigation of the cognitive ability-CWB relationship, and finds that for a large sample of law enforcement job applicants, a standardized psychometric test of cognitive ability predicted CWB, whereas educational attainment did not.

FIELD MEASURES OF STRENGTH AND FITNESS PREDICT FIREFIGHTER PERFORMANCE ON PHYSICALLY DEMANDING TASKS

Recruits from 9 consecutive fire academy classes were assessed on a battery of strength and endurance measures at Weeks 1, 7, and 14 of training. Regression analyses using Week 1 measures indicated

Degradation of validity over time: a test and extension of Ackerman's model.

Regression resultssupport the predicted negative curvilinear relationship between cognitive ability and consistent and inconsistent task performance but do not support the predicted relationships between perceptual speed ability and psychomotor ability and consistency and consistent task performance.

The dynamics of assessment center validity: results of a seven year study

We investigated temporal trends in the validity of an assessment center consisting of a group discussion and an analysis/presentation exercise, for predicting career advancement as measured by

Further evidence for the validity of assessment center dimensions: a meta-analysis of the incremental criterion-related validity of dimension ratings.

The results indicate that the 7 summary AC dimensions postulated by W. Edens (2003) are distinguishable from popular individual difference constructs and explain a sizeable proportion of variance in job performance beyond cognitive ability and personality.

The dynamics of assessment center validity: results of a 7-year study.

There was a considerable time variation in the validity of both the overall assessment rating and the assessment center dimensions, and the interpersonal effectiveness dimension became valid only after a number of years, whereas the firmness dimension was predictive in the whole period and increased with time.