On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

@article{Penner2013OnTP,
  title={On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science},
  author={Orion Penner and Raj Kumar Pan and Alexander Michael Petersen and Kimmo K. Kaski and Santo Fortunato},
  journal={Scientific Reports},
  year={2013},
  volume={3}
}
Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology… 
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