On the Effect of Correlations on Rank Histograms: Temperature and Wind-speed Forecasts from Fine-scale Ensemble Reforecasts

Abstract

The rank histogram is a standard tool for assessing the quality of ensemble forecasts. Like all measures, though, in certain situations it conveys misleading information. Here, first, simulated data are employed to illustrate how rank histograms are affected by 1) temporal correlations, and 2) correlations between ensemble members, in addition to the… (More)

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