On the Accuracy of Economic Observations.

  title={On the Accuracy of Economic Observations.},
  author={Tibor Barna and Oscar Morgenstern},
Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis
  • C. Manski
  • Medicine, Economics
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2018
A typology of practices that contribute to incredible certitude is presented, give illustrative examples, and suggestions on how to communicate uncertainty are offered. Expand
Evaluation of the OECD’s prediction algorithm for the annual GDP growth rate
Abstract Forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) growth differences between countries serves an important role in the justification of governments fiscal policy measures and in making decisions onExpand
Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in the China-New Zealand trade
We analyse discrepancy in the trade data between China and New Zealand, where what China reports as its exports to New Zealand and what New Zealand reports as its imports from China reached anExpand
Eye in the Sky: Private Satellites and Government Macro Data
We develop an approach to identify whether recent technological advancements -- such as the rise of commercial satellite-based macro estimates -- can provide an alternative to government data. WeExpand
Is precise econometrics an illusion?1
  • G. Swann
  • Economics
  • The Journal of Economic Education
  • 2019
Abstract Many empirical economists say that the teaching of econometrics is unbalanced, and students are not well-prepared for the serious problems they will encounter with real data. Here, theExpand
Mikropodstawy prawdziwe i fałszywe
This article presents an overview and critique of the two leading macroeconomic approaches from the last 70 years: reasoning using high-level aggregates detached from individuals and their choices,Expand
The lure of incredible certitude
  • C. Manski
  • Psychology, Economics
  • Economics and Philosophy
  • 2019
Abstract Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and in practice. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredibleExpand
An Analysis of the Cause and Magnitude of Foreign Trade Zone‐Induced Biases in US Import Statistics
Comparisons of matched US COMTRADE and World Trade Organization IDB statistics reveal numerous instances where the WTO data on dutiable imports exceed both the corresponding UN general importExpand
Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biasedExpand