On parameter estimation of threshold autoregressive models
@article{Chan2010OnPE, title={On parameter estimation of threshold autoregressive models}, author={Ngai Hang Chan and Yury A. Kutoyants}, journal={Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes}, year={2010}, volume={15}, pages={81-104} }
This paper studies the threshold estimation of a TAR model when the underlying threshold parameter is a random variable. It is shown that the Bayesian estimator is consistent and its limit distribution is expressed in terms of a limit likelihood ratio. Furthermore, convergence of moments of the estimators is also established. The limit distribution can be computed via explicit simulations from which testing and inference for the threshold parameter can be conducted. The obtained results are…
28 Citations
On nonlinear TAR processes and threshold estimation
- Mathematics
- 2012
We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a “space switching” in the situation when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly…
Estimation in threshold autoregressive models with correlated innovations
- Mathematics, Computer Science
- 2013
This paper considers a model, driven by Gaussian noise with geometric correlation tail, and derives a complete characterization of the asymptotic distribution for the Bayes estimator of the threshold parameter.
Predictive Recursion Maximum Likelihood of Threshold Autoregressive Model
- Computer ScienceRobustness in Econometrics
- 2017
A flexible semiparametric estimation for Threshold autoregressive model (TAR) to avoid the specification of error distribution in TAR model is proposed and a predictive recursion-based marginal likelihood function is applied to maximize this function using hybrid PREM algorithm.
On identification of the threshold diffusion processes
- Mathematics
- 2010
We consider the problems of parameter estimation for several models of threshold ergodic diffusion processes in the asymptotics of large samples. These models are the direct continuous time analogues…
Recent Developments of Threshold Estimation for Nonlinear Time Series
- Mathematics
- 2010
In this article, several important problems of threshold estimation in a Bayesian framework for nonlinear time series models are discussed. The paper starts with the issue of calculating the maximum…
Likelihood estimation and inference in threshold regression
- Mathematics, Computer Science
- 2012
Regularized Bayesian estimation of generalized threshold regression models.
- Economics, Mathematics
- 2014
Estimation of threshold parameters in (generalized) threshold regression models is typically performed by maximizing the corresponding pro file likelihood function. Also, certain Bayesian techniques…
Penalized estimation of threshold auto-regressive models with many components and thresholds
- Computer ScienceElectronic Journal of Statistics
- 2022
A new framework for estimating high-dimensional TAR models is developed, and two different sparsity-inducing penalties are proposed that lead to more flexible extension of the TAR model that leads to consistent estimation and superior empirical performance in high dimensions.
On threshold estimation in threshold vector error correction models
- Economics
- 2011
When assessing the integration of spatially separated markets, agricultural economiststypically analyze the transmission of price shocks between these markets. The law of oneprice suggests that the…
References
SHOWING 1-10 OF 19 REFERENCES
On identification of the threshold diffusion processes
- Mathematics
- 2010
We consider the problems of parameter estimation for several models of threshold ergodic diffusion processes in the asymptotics of large samples. These models are the direct continuous time analogues…
Inference in TAR Models
- Mathematics, Economics
- 1997
A distribution theory is developed for least-squares estimates of the threshold in Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models. We find that if we let the threshold effect (the difference in slopes between…
BAYESIAN THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR NONLINEAR TIME SERIES
- Computer Science, Mathematics
- 1993
The exact posterior distribution of the delay and threshold parameters is derived, as is the multi‐step‐ahead predictive density in the threshold autoregressive model for time series.
Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation
- Economics
- 2000
Threshold models have a wide variety of applications in economics. Direct applications include models of separating and multiple equilibria. Other applications include empirical sample splitting when…
TESTING FOR THRESHOLD MOVING AVERAGE WITH CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY
- Mathematics
- 2008
The recent paper by Ling and Tong (2005) considered a quasi-likelihood ratio test for the threshold in moving average models with i.i.d. errors. This article generalizes their results to the case…
Nonlinear Time Series: Nonparametric and Parametric Methods
- MathematicsTechnometrics
- 2004
This book discusses the statistical properties of the sample mean, weighted averages, sample variance, and sample median under various distributional assumptions about the underlying independent and identically distributed data (normal, binomial, and a specialized PDF proportional to the square of a sinc function).
Statistical Inference for Ergodic Diffusion Processes
- Mathematics
- 2004
1 Diffusion Processes and Statistical Problems.- 2 Parameter Estimation.- 3 Special Models.- 4 Nonparametric Estimation.- 5 Hypotheses Testing.- Historical Remarks.- References.
Statistical Inference for Spatial Poisson Processes
- Mathematics
- 1998
1 Auxiliary Results.- 1.1 Poisson process.- 1.2 Estimation problems.- 2 First Properties of Estimators.- 2.1 Asymptotic of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators.- 2.2 Minimum distance…