• Mathematics
  • Published 2008

On J.M. Keynes' The principal averages and the laws of error which lead to them: refinement and generalisation

@inproceedings{Klein2008OnJK,
  title={On J.M. Keynes' The principal averages and the laws of error which lead to them: refinement and generalisation},
  author={Ingo Klein and Michael Grottke},
  year={2008}
}
Keynes (1911) derived general forms of probability density functions for which the "most probable value" is given by the arithmetic mean, the geometric mean, the harmonic mean, or the median. His approach was based on indirect (i.e., posterior) distributions and used a constant prior distribution for the parameter of interest. It was therefore equivalent to maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, the technique later introduced by Fisher (1912). Keynes' results suffer from the fact that he did not… CONTINUE READING