Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II

@article{Hamilton1983OilAT,
  title={Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II},
  author={J. Hamilton},
  journal={Journal of Political Economy},
  year={1983},
  volume={91},
  pages={228 - 248}
}
  • J. Hamilton
  • Published 1983
  • Economics
  • Journal of Political Economy
All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. This does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions. Evidence is presented, however, that even over the period 1948-72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious, supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the U.S. recessions prior to 1972… Expand
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