Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

  title={Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change},
  author={Till Kuhlbrodt and Jonathan M. Gregory},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable… 

A Conceptual Model of Ocean Heat Uptake under Climate Change

AbstractA conceptual model of ocean heat uptake is developed as a multilayer generalization of Gnanadesikan. The roles of Southern Ocean Ekman and eddy transports, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)

The Influence of Warming Patterns on Passive Ocean Heat Uptake

The climate's response to forcing depends on how efficiently heat is absorbed by the ocean. Much, if not most, of this ocean heat uptake results from the passive transport of warm surface waters into

Ocean Response to a Climate Change Heat-Flux Perturbation in an Ocean Model and Its Corresponding Coupled Model

State-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used to predict ocean heat uptake (OHU) and sea-level change under global warming. However, the projections of different models vary,

Global Pattern Formation of Net Ocean Surface Heat Flux Response to Greenhouse Warming

This study examines global patterns of net ocean surface heat flux changes (ΔQnet) under greenhouse warming in an ocean–atmosphere coupled model based on a heat budget decomposition. The regional

Southern Ocean Heat Uptake, Redistribution, and Storage in a Warming Climate: The Role of Meridional Overturning Circulation

Climate models show that most of the anthropogenic heat resulting from increased atmospheric CO2 enters the Southern Ocean near 60°S and is stored around 45°S. This heat is transported to the ocean

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Uptake Along and Across Isopycnals

Warming of the climate system accumulates mostly in the ocean and discrepancies in how this is modelled contribute to uncertainties in predicting sea level rise. In this study, regional temperature

Connecting Direct Effects of CO2 Radiative Forcing to Ocean Heat Uptake and Circulation

The ocean's response to direct atmospheric effects of increased carbon dioxide's (CO2) radiative forcing is examined. These direct effects are defined as the climate changes that result from forcing

Changes in ocean vertical heat transport with global warming

Heat transport between the surface and deep ocean strongly influences transient climate change. Mechanisms setting this transport are investigated using coupled climate models and by projecting ocean

Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline

Technologies utilizing vertical ocean pipes have been proposed as a means to avoid global warming, either by providing a source of clean energy, increasing ocean carbon uptake, or storing thermal



Importance of oceanic heat uptake in transient climate change

The impact of the differences in the oceanic heat uptake and storage on the transient response to changes in radiative forcing is investigated using two newly developed coupled atmosphere‐ocean

Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations

Two main mechanisms can potentially explain the spread in the magnitude of global warming simulated by climate models: deep ocean heat uptake and climate feedbacks. Here, we show that deep oceanic

Constraining climate model parameters from observed 20th century changes

We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010

We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates

Regional sea level changes projected by the NASA/GISS Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Abstract Sea level has been rising for the past century, and coastal residents of the Earth will want to understand and predict future sea level changes. In this study we present sea level changes

Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change

[1] Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rDT between radiative forcing F and global mean surface

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the

Revisiting the Earth's sea‐level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

We review the sea‐level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea‐level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges