Occurrence of extreme solar particle events: Assessment from historical proxy data

@article{Usoskin2012OccurrenceOE,
  title={Occurrence of extreme solar particle events: Assessment from historical proxy data},
  author={Ilya G. Usoskin and Gennady A. Kovaltsov},
  journal={The Astrophysical Journal},
  year={2012},
  volume={757},
  pages={92}
}
The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 1010 cm–2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 1010 cm–2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 1010 cm–2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data… 

Figures from this paper

The 1859 space weather event revisited: limits of extreme activity
The solar flare on 1 September 1859 and its associated geomagnetic storm remain the standard for an extreme solar-terrestrial event. The most recent estimates of the flare soft X-ray (SXR) peak
Revisited Reference Solar Proton Event of 23 February 1956: Assessment of the Cosmogenic‐Isotope Method Sensitivity to Extreme Solar Events
Our direct knowledge of solar eruptive events is limited to several decades and does not include extreme events, which can only be studied by the indirect proxy method over millennia, or by a large
Assessment of F200 fluence for major solar energetic particle events on the multi-millennial time scale
Solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes are typically quantified in the F30 units (integrated fluence of particles with energy above 30 MeV) and their direct measurements are available only for the
Extreme solar particle events: Can we assess the worst case scenario?
The era of direct or indirect (ground-based) observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events covers 50 and 70–80 years, respectively. While thousands of SEP events with soft energy spectra have
Fluence Ordering of Solar Energetic Proton Events Using Cosmogenic Radionuclide Data
While data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be made it possible to evaluate extreme solar proton events (SPEs) in the past, their relation to standard parameters quantifying the SPE strengths,
Occurrence Probability of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: Assessment from Data on Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Lunar Rocks
We revisited assessments of the occurrence probability distribution of large events in solar energetic particles (SEP), based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar rocks. We present a
Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of ᴀᴅ 774/5 and 993/4
TLDR
Evidence is provided that these peaks in the atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) concentration at AD 774/5 and 993/4 were most likely produced by extreme solar events, based on several new annually resolved 10Be measurements from both Arctic and Antarctic ice cores.
Tree rings reveal two strong solar proton events in 7176 and 5259 BCE
The Sun sporadically produces eruptive events leading to intense fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs) that dramatically disrupt the near-Earth radiation environment. Such events are directly
Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD
TLDR
It is shown that such a severe SEP event is able to perturb the polar stratosphere for at least one year, leading to regional changes in the surface temperature during northern hemisphere winters, and adds to prior conclusions that any nitrate deposition signal from SEP events remains too weak to be detected in ice cores.
Rapid events in the carbon-14 content of tree-rings
Measurement of cosmogenic nuclides can provide us important information to search past extraterrestrial high-energy events such as supernova, solar proton event (SPE), and so on. Until now, the
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 39 REFERENCES
Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561–1994: 1. Identification in polar ice, 1561–1950
The geophysical significance of the thin nitrate-rich layers that have been found in both Arctic and Antarctic firn and ice cores, dating from the period 1561–1991, is examined in detail. It is shown
Solar proton events in cosmogenic isotope data
[1] A possible contribution of solar energetic particle events to the production of cosmogenic 10Be and 14C in the atmosphere is studied. The solar particle effect is negligible in the 14C data, but
Solar proton events for 450 years: The Carrington event in perspective
Abstract Using high resolution measurements of the impulsive nitrate events in polar ice as identifiers of solar proton events in the past, we have identified 19 events over the period 1561–1950 that
Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between 14C and 10Be records
For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings 14C/12C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In
A summary of major solar proton events
Solar proton events have been routinely detected by satellites since the 20th solar cycle; however, before that time only very major proton events were detected at the Earth. Even though the
Two groups of extremely large >30 MeV solar proton fluence events
Abstract The very large solar proton events, those having an omni-directional solar proton fluence greater than 10 9  cm −2 at energies >30 MeV, are the events that impose operational constraints on
10Be and δ2H in polar ice cores as a probe of the solar variability’s influence on climate
By using the technique of accelerator mass spectrometry, it is now possible to measure detailed profiles of cosmogenic (cosmic ray produced) 10Be in polar ice cores. Recent work has demonstrated that
An Antarctic view of Beryllium-10 and solar activity for the past millennium
Beryllium-10 in ice provides a valuable proxy of solar activity. However, complex production pathways, atmospheric transport, and deposition processes impede its quantitative interpretation. Here, we
Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
TLDR
A reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400 years is reported, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations, and it is pointed out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.
A phenomenological study of the long-term cosmic ray modulation, 850-1958 AD
[1] The modulation of the galactic cosmic radiation over the past 1150 years is investigated using 10Be data from Greenland and the South Pole. For this purpose, we introduce the use of 22-year
...
1
2
3
4
...