Observer-Relative Chances In Anthropic Reasoning?

@article{Bostrom2000ObserverRelativeCI,
  title={Observer-Relative Chances In Anthropic Reasoning?},
  author={Nick Bostrom},
  journal={Erkenntnis},
  year={2000},
  volume={52},
  pages={93-108}
}
John Leslie presents a thought experiment to show that chances are sometimes observer-relative in a paradoxical way. The pivotal assumption in his argument – a version of the weak anthropic principle – is the same as the one used to get the disturbing Doomsday argument off the ground. I show that Leslie's thought experiment trades on the sense/reference ambiguity and is fallacious. I then describe a related case where chances are observer-relative in an interesting way. But not in a paradoxical… 
View on Springer
12 Citations
Background Citations
5
Methods Citations
1

12 Citations

Citation Type

Citation Type

The Doomsday Argument Adam & Eve, UN++, and Quantum Joe
  • N. Bostrom
  • Philosophy, Computer Science
    Synthese
  • 2004
TLDR
This work presents two strands of argument in favor of the Self-Sampling Assumption, and investigates some bizarre prima facie consequences – backward causation, psychic powers, and an apparent conflict with the Principal Principle.
The Doomsday Argument and the Self–Indication Assumption: Reply to Olum
In a recent paper in this journal, Ken Olum attempts to refute the doomsday argument by appealing to the self-indication assumption (SIA) that your very existence gives you reason to think that there…
Book Reviews-Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
The centuries-old question why the universe is just so? has only recently begun to be discussed in serious quantitative manner. Above all, this is due to the vast accumulation of physical and…
AGREEMENT THEOREMS FOR SELF-LOCATING BELIEF
  • Michael Caie
  • Mathematics, Computer Science
    The Review of Symbolic Logic
  • 2016
TLDR
Aumann’s famous “no agreeing to disagree” theorem, and a second related theorem, are outlined and three agreement theorems that hold for such agents are outlined.
Agreement and Updating For Self-Locating Belief
  • Michael Caie
  • Mathematics, Computer Science
    J. Philos. Log.
  • 2018
In this paper, I argue that some plausible principles concerning which credences are rationally permissible for agents given information about one another’s epistemic and credal states have some…
Bayesian considerations on the multiverse explanation of cosmic fine-tuning
The fundamental laws and constants of our universe seem to be finely tuned for life. The various multiverse hypotheses are popular explanations for the fine tuning. This paper reviews the four main…
An infrared divergence in the cosmological measure theory and the anthropic reasoning
An anthropic principle has made it possible to answer the difficult question of why the observable value of cosmological constant (Λ∼10−47 GeV4) is so disconcertingly tiny compared to the predicted…
Prediction and explanation in the multiverse
Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble…
Self-Locating Belief in Big Worlds: Cosmology’s Missing Link to Observation
Current cosmological theories say that the world is so big that all possible observations are in fact made. But then, how can such theories be tested? What could count as negative evidence? To answer…
Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards
Because of accelerating technological progress, humankind may be rapidly approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to well-known threats such as nuclear holocaust, the propects of…
...
1
2
...

References

SHOWING 1-8 OF 8 REFERENCES
Observer-relative chances and the doomsday argument
Suppose various observers are divided randomly into two groups, a large and a small. Not knowing into which group anyone has been sent, each can have strong grounds for believing in being in the…
Doom and Probabilities
William Eckhardt's attack (Eckhardt 1993) on my account of the doomsday argument (Leslie 1992) attaches most weight to the familiar point that humans of the future are not yet alive to observe…
The doomsday argument is alive and kicking
A recent paper by Korb and Oliver in this journal attempts to refute the Carter-Leslie Doomsday argument. I organize their remarks into five objections and show that they all fail. Further efforts…
A refutation of the doomsday argument
Carter and Leslie's Doomsday Argument maintains that reflection upon the number of humans born thus far, when that number is viewed as having been uniformly randomly selected from amongst all humans,…
The Sap Also Rises: A Critical Examination of the Anthropic Principle
I conclude from these accidents of physics and astronomy that the universe is an unexpectedly hospit? able place for living creatures to make their home in. Being a scientist trained in the habits of…
The Anthropic Cosmological Principle
Is there any connection between the vastness of the universes of stars and galaxies and the existence of life on a small planet out in the suburbs of the Milky Way? This book shows that there is. In…
A shooting-room view of doomsday
L'A. se propose de demontrer la faussete de l'argument dit du jugement dernier, developpe par J. Leslie pour soutenir l'idee selon laquelle l'humanite n'a plus beaucoup de temps a vivre, en examinant…
The End of the World
Introduction / Eric S. Rabkin -- The remaking of zero / Gary K. Wolfe -- The lone survivor / Robert Plank -- Ambiguous apocalypse / Robert Galbreath -- Round trips to doomsday / W. Warren Wagar --…