Observations on the Impact of Uncertainty in Strategic Analysis

@article{Sienkiewicz1979ObservationsOT,
  title={Observations on the Impact of Uncertainty in Strategic Analysis},
  author={Stanley J. Sienkiewicz},
  journal={World Politics},
  year={1979},
  volume={32},
  pages={90-110}
}
The effects of uncertainty in strategic analysis are generally not well understood, but are increasingly important in relating the strategic calculations by means of which we evaluate the adequacy of our strategic forces to the deterrence of attack in the world of real political leaders, in real crises. Assumptions must be made about many unknowns and uncertainties—ranging from the behavior of national leaders to the technical characteristics of weapons systems—in order to make the problem… Expand

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