ON THE LOW FALSE POSITIVE PROBABILITIES OF KEPLER PLANET CANDIDATES

@article{Morton2011ONTL,
  title={ON THE LOW FALSE POSITIVE PROBABILITIES OF KEPLER PLANET CANDIDATES},
  author={Timothy D. Morton and John Asher Johnson},
  journal={The Astrophysical Journal},
  year={2011},
  volume={738},
  pages={170}
}
We present a framework to conservatively estimate the probability that any particular planet-like transit signal observed by the Kepler mission is in fact a planet, prior to any ground-based follow-up efforts. We use Monte Carlo methods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models, and report false positive probabilities (FPPs) for every Kepler Object of Interest, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-in planets in the radius range 0.5 R_⊕ 10% to <1%. Since… 

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