Nowcasting US GDP: The Role of ISM Business Surveys

  title={Nowcasting US GDP: The Role of ISM Business Surveys},
  author={K. Lahiri and George Monokroussos},
  journal={Supply Chain Management eJournal},
  • K. Lahiri, George Monokroussos
  • Published 2011
  • Economics
  • Supply Chain Management eJournal
  • We study the role of the well-known monthly diffusion indices produced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in nowcasting current quarter U.S. GDP growth. In contrast to the existing literature on ISM surveys, we investigate their marginal impact on these nowcasts when large unbalanced (jagged edge) macroeconomic data sets are used in real time to generate them. We find evidence that these ISM indices are helpful in improving the nowcasts when new ISM information becomes available in… CONTINUE READING
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