Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm

@article{James2019NowcastingRU,
  title={Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm},
  author={Alexander James and Y. Abu-Mostafa and Xiao Qiao},
  journal={ArXiv},
  year={2019},
  volume={abs/1903.03202}
}
We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because the full information about it is not available until later, is key for recessions, which are only determined months after the fact. We show that SVM has excellent predictive performance for this task, and we provide implementation details to facilitate its… Expand
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