Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

@article{PerezOregon2020NowcastingAA,
  title={Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model},
  author={Jennifer Perez-Oregon and Fernando Angulo-Brown and Nicholas V. Sarlis},
  journal={Entropy},
  year={2020},
  volume={22}
}
Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with… Expand
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