Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

  title={Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model},
  author={Jennifer Perez-Oregon and Fernando Angulo-Brown and Nicholas V. Sarlis},
Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with… Expand
Nowcasting earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia
Large devastating events such as earthquakes often display frequency–magnitude statistics that exhibit power-law distribution. In this study, we implement a recently developed method calledExpand
A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia
Tectonic plate interactions in Sumatra have caused a range of devastating earthquake events. In this study, we develop an analytical framework, known as earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al. in EarthExpand
Nowcasting Earthquakes by Visualizing the Earthquake Cycle with Machine Learning: A Comparison of Two Methods
The earthquake cycle of stress accumulation and release is associated with the elastic rebound hypothesis proposed by H.F. Reid following the M7.9 San Francisco earthquake of 1906. However, observingExpand
Quantifying the current state of earthquake hazards in Nepal
ABSTRACT Quantitative estimates of present-day earthquake hazard in major cities are essential for effective policymaking, community development, and seismic risk reduction. In this study, we developExpand
Nowcasting of air pollution episodes in megacities: A case study for Athens, Greece
Abstract The main objective of the present study is to develop a model for the prediction of the extreme events of air pollution in megacities using the concept of so-called "natural time" instead ofExpand
Nowcasting Earthquakes:Imaging the Earthquake Cycle in California with Machine Learning
A new machine learning-based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time-dependent earthquake cycle is proposed and the result is a timeseries which may correspond to the process of stress accretion in the earthquake cycle. Expand
The Current State of Earthquake Potential on Java Island, Indonesia
Between 2006 and 2020, earthquakes and other geohazards on volcano-dotted Java Island have caused about 7000 deaths, and another 1.8 million people were injured, displaced, or left homeless. In thisExpand


Nowcasting Earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal Region
  • S. Pasari
  • Geology
  • Pure and Applied Geophysics
  • 2018
Statistical quantification of observed seismicity is important for understanding earthquake dynamics and future risk in any seismic-prone region. In this paper, we implement the idea of nowcastingExpand
Foreshocks and aftershocks in the Olami-Feder-Christensen model.
It is shown that the established Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model exhibits sequences of foreshocks and aftershocks, consistent with Omori's empirical law, but the exponents predicted by the model are lower than observed in nature. Expand
Nowcasting Great Global Earthquake and Tsunami Sources
Nowcasting refers to the use of proxy data to estimate the current dynamic state of driven complex systems such as earthquakes, neural networks, or the financial markets. In previous papers, methodsExpand
Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities
Natural Time (“NT”) refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was firstExpand
A plausible universal behaviour of earthquakes in the natural time-domain
In previous papers, we showed that in the new time-domain, called natural time: 1) the power spectrum of an SES-activity exhibits properties of critical phenomena and the power spectra of the localExpand
Dynamics of earthquake faults
The authors present an overview of ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge-Knopoff model of an earthquake fault, discussing the model's behavior in theExpand
Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California
Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermalExpand
Properties of foreshocks and aftershocks of the nonconservative self-organized critical Olami-Feder-Christensen model.
It is found that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share many properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level: O Mori's law (aftershocks) and inverse Omori'sLaw (foreshocks), increase of the number of aftershocks and of the aftershock zone size with the mainshock magnitude. Expand
Quasiperiodic events in an earthquake model.
Quasiperiodic behavior in the avalanche time series with a period proportional to the degree of dissipation of the system is found, which is not as robust as criticality when the threshold force distribution widens, or when an increasing noise is introduced in the values of the dissipation. Expand
Phenomena preceding major earthquakes interconnected through a physical model
Abstract. The analysis of earthquake time series in a new time domain termed natural time enables the uncovering of hidden properties in time series of complex systems and has been recently employedExpand