Not the same old hindsight bias: Outcome information distorts a broad range of retrospective judgments

  title={Not the same old hindsight bias: Outcome information distorts a broad range of retrospective judgments},
  author={Amy L. Bradfield and Gary L Wells},
  journal={Memory \& Cognition},
The hindsight bias (e.g., Fischhoff, 1975) illustrates that outcome information can make people believe that they would have (or did) predict an outcome that they would not (or did not) actually predict. In two experiments, participants (N = 226) made a prediction immediately before receiving outcome information. Therefore, participants could not distort or misremember their predictions to make them align with the outcome information. In both experiments, participants distorted their reports of… 
Hindsight Bias
  • N. Roese, K. Vohs
  • Psychology
    Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science
  • 2012
New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.
Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias
In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral
Hindsight Bias: A Primer for Motivational Researchers
Thirty-five years since the publication of Fischhoff’s (1975) seminal article, we continue to be fascinated by the hindsight bias. Like a well-developed character in a novel, the bias has something
Perspective-taking and hindsight bias: When the target is oneself and/or a peer
President Trump reacted to a reporter’s query about the coronavirus outbreak by stating that the reporter was a “lousy journalist”, underscoring the importance of perspective-taking in social
Making sense of failure: A motivated model of hindsight bias.
Can we learn from our mistakes? Does the large body of research demonstrating hindsight bias indicate that people are not likely to take responsibility for their errors and thus deprive themselves of
The Eyewitness Post Identification Feedback Effect 15 Years Later: Theoretical and Policy Implications
Eyewitnesses' retrospective reports of certainty, view, attention, and other judgments constitute central variables used by courts to assess the credibility of eyewitness identification evidence.
Moderators of post-identification feedback effects on eyewitnesses' memory reports
Purpose. Information provided to eyewitnesses suggesting that their identification was correct (i.e., post-identification feedback) distorts witnesses' memory reports. More pronounced effects of
Post-identification Feedback to Eyewitnesses: Implications for System Variable Reform
Eyewitness memory can be distorted by simple comments received after an identification decision is made. When these comments suggest that the identification decision was correct, they inflate
Memory distortion in eyewitnesses: a meta-analysis of the post-identification feedback effect
Feedback administered to eyewitnesses after they make a line-up identification dramatically distorts a wide range of retrospective judgements (e.g. G. L. Wells & A. L. Bradfield, 1998 Journal of


No Reduction in Hindsight Bias after Complete Information and Repeated Testing
In hindsight, people often claim to have known more than they actually did. This finding has been termed hindsight bias. We report two hindsight-bias experiments which yielded converging results with
The Effects of Feedback Source and Plausibility of Hindsight Bias
Whenever people try to recollect an earlier given estimate after they have received feedback about the true solution, they tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. This phenomenon is
Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias
Abstract “Hindsight Bias” is a person's tendency, after learning about the actual outcome of a situation or the correct answer to a question, to distort a previous judgment in the direction of this
Reversibility of the Hindsight Bias: Manipulation of Experimental Demands
Abstract A hindsight bias is found when ratings made after outcome feedback differ from ratings made before feedback. Cognitive processes, motivational factors, and demand characteristics have all
Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?
It is concluded that hindsight bias can be understood as a by-product of an adaptive process, namely the updating of knowledge after feedback.
Eliminating the hindsight bias.
Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate this hindsight bias
Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis
When individuals learn the outcome of an event or the correct answer to a question, they overestimate its prior predictability: that is, they tend to believe they “knew it all along.” Cognitive and
Perceived Informativeness of Facts.
There are many tasks in which people are called on to disregard information that they have already processed. Dealing with inadmissible evidence in a courtroom setting, second-guessing the past, and
The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis