North-Holland DIVIDEND YIE [ 2 DS AND EXPECIED ST ( KX RETURNS *
@inproceedings{French2002NorthHollandDY, title={North-Holland DIVIDEND YIE [ 2 DS AND EXPECIED ST ( KX RETURNS *}, author={Kenneth R. French}, year={2002} }
The power of dividend yields to fol~.-cast s'~ck returns, measured by regression R 2, inrA-eases with the return horizon. We offer a two-part explnnatio~. (1) ]-Iieh at~c}o~rfe]ation causes the variance of expected returns to grow faster than the return horizon. (2) The growth of the vari~ce of ,_me~cted returns with the return horizon is attenuated by a discount-rate effectshocks to expected returns generate opposite shocks to current prices. We estimate that, on average, the future price…
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