Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973-2003)

  title={Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973-2003)},
  author={Frank W. Geels and Rob P. J. M. Raven},
  journal={Techn. Analysis & Strat. Manag.},
Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows… CONTINUE READING
Highly Cited
This paper has 99 citations. REVIEW CITATIONS


Publications citing this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 67 extracted citations

100 Citations

Citations per Year
Semantic Scholar estimates that this publication has 100 citations based on the available data.

See our FAQ for additional information.


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 21 references

For a detailed analysis of manure digestion

  • F. W. Geels, R.P.J.M. Raven
  • International Journal of Sustainable Development…
  • 2006

Local and global dynamics in technological development: a socio-cognitive perspective on knowledge flows and lessons from reinforced concrete

  • See Deuten, op cit, Ref
  • Science and Public Policy,
  • 2006
1 Excerpt

Exploiting technological niches: strategies for experimental introduction of electric vehicles, PhD thesis, University of Twente, 2000; B

  • R. Hoogma
  • Van Mierlo, Kiem van maatschappelijke verandering…
  • 2005


  • R.P.J.M. Rave
  • P. J. Verbong, Ruling out innovations, Innovation…
  • 2004
1 Excerpt


  • R. Garu
  • Karnøe, Bricolage versus breakthrough…
  • 2003
1 Excerpt

The sociology of expectations: retrospecting prospects and prospecting retrospects

  • H. Van Lente, op cit, Ref
  • Van Lente
  • 2003


  • J. Schot, R. Hoogm
  • Elzen, Strategies for shifting technological…
  • 1998
1 Excerpt

Expectations in technological developments: an example of prospective structures to be filled in by agency

  • H. Van Lente, A. Rip
  • (Eds) Getting New Technologies Together (Berlin…
  • 1998
1 Excerpt

Learning by trying: the implementation of configurational technology

  • J. Fleck
  • Research Policy,
  • 1994
1 Excerpt

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…