Noise and Nonlinearity in Epidemics : combining statistical and mechanistic modeling to characterize and forecast population dynamics

@inproceedings{Ellner2008NoiseAN,
  title={Noise and Nonlinearity in Epidemics : combining statistical and mechanistic modeling to characterize and forecast population dynamics},
  author={S. P. Ellner and Barbara Bailey and G. Bobashevt and A. Ronald Gallant and Bryan T. Grenfell and Douglas W. Nychka},
  year={2008}
}
Childhood disease epidemics in large cities, notably measles, have been proposed as a well-supported example of deterministic chaos underlying complex population dynamics, but this remains controversial. Methods based on nonlinear time series modeling identify these epidemics as nonlinear with substantial random noise, clustering near the transition between stability and chaos. This conclusion has been challenged on the ground that the time series models have lower forecasting accuracy than… CONTINUE READING
1 Citations
44 References
Similar Papers

Citations

Publications citing this paper.

References

Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 44 references

Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data, in Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data

  • S Ellner, A R Gallant, J Theiler
  • Proceedings of NATO ARW on Epidemic Models
  • 1995
Highly Influential
7 Excerpts

Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time series analysis

  • S Ellner, P Turchin
  • American Naturalist
  • 1995
Highly Influential
5 Excerpts

A nonparametric approach to nonlinear time series analysis: estimation and simulation

  • Ar Gallant, G Tauchen
  • New Directions in Time Series Analysis, part II
  • 1992
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

Chaos with Confidence: asymptotics and applications of local Lyapunov exponents

  • B A Bailey, S Ellner, D W Nychka
  • Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series: Building a…
  • 1996
2 Excerpts

Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data

  • G Bobashev, S Ellner, D W Nychka, B T Grenfell
  • Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment…
  • 1996

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…