New theory about old evidence

@article{Wenmackers2014NewTA,
  title={New theory about old evidence},
  author={Sylvia Wenmackers and Jan-Willem Romeijn},
  journal={Synthese},
  year={2014},
  volume={193},
  pages={1225-1250}
}
We present a conservative extension of a Bayesian account of confirmation that can deal with the problem of old evidence and new theories. So-called open-minded Bayesianism challenges the assumption—implicit in standard Bayesianism—that the correct empirical hypothesis is among the ones currently under consideration. It requires the inclusion of a catch-all hypothesis, which is characterized by means of sets of probability assignments. Upon the introduction of a new theory, the former catch-all… CONTINUE READING
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