Neglect of alternative causes in predictive but not diagnostic reasoning.

Abstract

People are renowned for their failure to consider alternative hypotheses. We compare neglect of alternative causes when people make predictive versus diagnostic probability judgments. One study with medical professionals reasoning about psychopathology and two with undergraduates reasoning about goals and actions or about causal transmission yielded the… (More)
DOI: 10.1177/0956797610361430

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