Near-exact explicit asymptotic solution of the SIR model well above the epidemic threshold

@inproceedings{Kozyreff2021NearexactEA,
  title={Near-exact explicit asymptotic solution of the SIR model well above the epidemic threshold},
  author={Gregory Kozyreff},
  booktitle={medRxiv},
  year={2021}
}
  • G. Kozyreff
  • Published in medRxiv 29 March 2021
  • Mathematics
A simple and explicit expression of the solution of the SIR epidemiological model of Kermack and McKendrick is constructed in the asymptotic limit of large basic reproduction numbers $ro$. The proposed formula yields good qualitative agreement already when $rogeq3$ and rapidly becomes quantitatively accurate as larger values of $ro$ are assumed. The derivation is based on the method of matched asymptotic expansions, which exploits the fact that the exponential growing phase and the eventual… 
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