Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief.

  title={Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief.},
  author={Igor Gavanski and Chun Kit Hui},
  journal={Journal of personality and social psychology},
  volume={63 5},
This article proposes a novel framework for understanding judgments of probability. Both accurate and inaccurate judgments are conceptualized in terms of the sets of information, or sample spaces, on which they are based. When appropriate sample spaces are easily accessed from memory (e.g., when they correspond to natural cognitive categories), people will make relatively accurate judgments; otherwise, people may substitute more accessible but inappropriate sample spaces and make judgment… CONTINUE READING

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