# Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

@article{Luginbuhl2018NaturalTA,
title={Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?},
author={Molly Luginbuhl and John B. Rundle and Donald L. Turcotte},
journal={Pure and Applied Geophysics},
year={2018},
volume={175},
pages={661-670}
}
• Published 2018
• Physics
• Pure and Applied Geophysics
The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of $$M_{\lambda } \ge 7.0$$Mλ≥7.0 and $$M_{\lambda } \ge 8.0$$Mλ≥8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT… Expand
16 Citations

#### Figures from this paper

Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity
• Geology, Medicine
• Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
• 2018
Nowcasting is introduced to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence, and it is shown how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts to reduce the seismic activity. Expand
Nowcasting Earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal Region
• S. Pasari
• Geology
• Pure and Applied Geophysics
• 2018
Statistical quantification of observed seismicity is important for understanding earthquake dynamics and future risk in any seismic-prone region. In this paper, we implement the idea of nowcastingExpand
Contemporary Earthquake Hazards in the West-Northwest Himalaya: A Statistical Perspective through Natural Times
• Geology
• 2020
Himalayan earthquakes have deep societal and economic impact. In this article, we implement a surrogate method of nowcasting (Rundle et al., 2016) to determine the current state of seismic hazardExpand
The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes
• Physics, Medicine
• Reports on progress in physics. Physical Society
• 2021
The focus is on anticipating the earthquake rupture before it occurs, rather than characterizing it rapidly just after it occurring, and new types of data, models, and computational power may provide avenues for progress using machine learning that were not previously available. Expand
Detrended fluctuation analysis of seismicity and order parameter fluctuations before the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake
• Geology
• Natural Hazards
• 2020
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been recently applied for the investigation of temporal correlations between the earthquake magnitudes before major earthquakes. Here, we employ DFA togetherExpand
Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes
• Medicine, Computer Science
• Entropy
• 2020
Fifteen distinct minima—observed simultaneously at two different natural time scales and deeper than a certain threshold—are found on analyzing the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the M9 Tohoku EQ occurrence) 1 to 3 months before large EQs. Expand
Investigation of the temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes before the Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017
• Geology
• 2019
Abstract By employing Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), which has been established as a standard method to investigate long range correlations in nonstationary time series, we study the temporalExpand
Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity and earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns
• Geology
• 2019
Abstract Natural time analysis has provided an order parameter for seismicity. It has been shown that the fluctuations of this order parameter exhibit characteristic minima before strong earthquakesExpand
Natural Time Analysis of Seismicity within the Mexican Flat Slab before the M7.1 Earthquake on 19 September 2017
• Medicine, Computer Science
• Entropy
• 2020
It is shown that, after the minimum of ΔS, the order parameter of seismicity starts diminishing, thus approaching gradually the critical value 0.070 around the end of August and the beginning of September 2017, which signals that a strong earthquake is anticipated shortly in the flat slab. Expand
Precursory variations of Tsallis non-extensive statistical mechanics entropic index associated with the M9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011
• Physics
• 2020
Applying natural time analysis, which has been introduced by the authors in 2001, to the Japanese seismic data, we find that the system enters the critical stage upon the occurrence of M = 4.2–5.0Expand

#### References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 30 REFERENCES
Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California
• Geology
• Pure and Applied Geophysics
• 2017
Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermalExpand
Recurrence Statistics of Great Earthquakes
• Geology, Physics
• 2013
[1] We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from theExpand
Were Global M ≥8:3 Earthquake Time Intervals Random between 1900 and 2011?
• Mathematics
• 2012
The pattern of great earthquakes during the past ∼100 yr raises questions whether large earthquake occurrence is linked across global distances, or whether temporal clustering can be attributed toExpand
Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence
• Geology
• 2005
Temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes (foreshock-mainshock-aftershock) followed by relative quiescence (stress shadow) are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries. A globalExpand
Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased
• Engineering, Medicine
• Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• 2011
The timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present is examined, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks to suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past. Expand
Are megaquakes clustered
• Geology, Physics
• 2012
[1] We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than thresholdExpand
Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales
• Geology
• Pure and Applied Geophysics
• 2014
Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating.Expand
The 2010–2014.3 global earthquake rate increase
• Geology
• 2014
In light of a heightened global earthquake rate during the first quarter of 2014 and recent studies concluding that large earthquakes affect global seismicity for extended periods, we revisit theExpand
Earthquake forecasting and its verification
• Physics, Mathematics
• 2005
Abstract. No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments forExpand
Random variability explains apparent global clustering of large earthquakes
[1] The occurrence of 5 Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes since 2004 has created a debate over whether or not we are in a global cluster of large earthquakes, temporarily raising risks above long-term levels. IExpand