Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

  title={Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities},
  author={J. Rundle and M. Luginbuhl and A. Giguere and D. Turcotte},
  journal={Pure and Applied Geophysics},
Natural Time (“NT”) refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in… Expand

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