Multimodel ensembles of streamflow forecasts: Role of predictor state in developing optimal combinations.

@article{Devineni2008MultimodelEO,
  title={Multimodel ensembles of streamflow forecasts: Role of predictor state in developing optimal combinations.},
  author={Naresh Devineni and A. Sankarasubramanian and Sujit Ghosh},
  journal={Water resources research},
  year={2008},
  volume={44 9},
  pages={W09404}
}
A new approach for developing multimodel streamflow forecasts is presented. The methodology combines streamflow forecasts from individual models by evaluating their skill, represented by rank probability score (RPS), contingent on the predictor state. Using average RPS estimated over the chosen neighbors in the predictor state space, the methodology assigns higher weights for a model that has better predictability under similar predictor conditions. We assess the performance of the proposed… CONTINUE READING
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