Most Probable Histories for Nonlinear Dynamics: Tracking Climate Transitions

@inproceedings{Eyink2000MostPH,
  title={Most Probable Histories for Nonlinear Dynamics: Tracking Climate Transitions},
  author={Gregory L. Eyink and Juan M. Restrepo},
  year={2000}
}
The eeective action provides an appropriate cost function to determine most probable (or optimal) histories for nonlinear dynamics with strong noise. In such strong-coupling problems, a nonperturbative technique is required to calculate the eeective action. We have proposed a Rayleigh-Ritz variational approximation, which employs simple moment-closures or intuitive guesses of the statistics to calculate the eeective action. We consider here an application to climate dynamics, within a simple… CONTINUE READING