Mortality modelling and forecasting : A review of methods

  title={Mortality modelling and forecasting : A review of methods},
  author={Heather Booth and Leonie Tickle},
Continuing increases in life expectancy beyond previously-held limits have brought to the fore the critical importance of mortality forecasting. Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative. Explanation is restricted to certain causes of death with known… CONTINUE READING
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