Corpus ID: 236134288

Moore's law, Wright's law and the Countdown to Exponential Space

@inproceedings{Berleant2021MooresLW,
  title={Moore's law, Wright's law and the Countdown to Exponential Space},
  author={Daniel Berleant and Venkat Kodali and Richard S. Segall and Hyacinthe Aboudja and Michael Howell},
  year={2021}
}
Technologies have often been observed to improve exponentially over time. In practice this often means identifying a constant known as the doubling time, describing the time period over which the technology roughly doubles in some measure of performance or of performance per dollar. Moore's law is, classically, the empirical observation that the number of electronic components that can be put on a chip doubles every 18 months to 2 years. Today it is frequently stated as the number of… Expand

Figures from this paper

Moore’s Law and Space Exploration: New Insights and Next Steps
Understanding how technology changes over time is important for industry, science, and government policy. Empirical examination of the capability of technologies across various domains reveals thatExpand

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 23 REFERENCES
Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress
TLDR
The results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. Expand
Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits
  • G. Moore
  • Computer Science, Engineering
  • Proceedings of the IEEE
  • 1998
The future of integrated electronics is the future of electronics itself. The advantages of integration will bring about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science into many new areas.Expand
Factors affecting the cost of airplanes
TLDR
The matter became of increasing interest and importance because of the program sponsored by the Bureau of Air Commerce for the development of a small two-place airplane which, it was hoped, could be marketed at $700 assuming a quantity of ten thousand units could be released for construction. Expand
On the challenge of a century lifespan satellite
Abstract This paper provides a review of the main issues affecting satellite survivability, including a discussion on the technologies to mitigate the risks and to enhance system reliability. TheExpand
A Theory of Progress Functions
Abstract Despite its applicability to a variety of phenomena and its demonstrated utility, a theoretical explanation of the progress function is generally lacking. The objective of this paper is toExpand
Steps toward Quantifying Advancement in Space Exploration
The purpose of this paper is to present a brief summary of preliminary research performed by the authors on project with objective of developing a group of simplistic models and metrics for measuringExpand
NASA’s Voyager 2 Probe Enters Interstellar Space
For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magneticExpand
42 years of microprocessor trend data
  • 2018
Another clever proxy for quantitative history
  • Cliodynamica
  • 2018
Has the pace of progress in space exploration slowed since the 'Space Race'?," Quora, www.quora.com/Has-the-pace-of-progress-in-space-exploration-slowed-sincethe-Space-Race
  • 2018
...
1
2
3
...