Monthly Brent oil price forecasting using artificial neural networks and a crisis index

  title={Monthly Brent oil price forecasting using artificial neural networks and a crisis index},
  author={Abbas Alizadeh and Kh. Mafinezhad},
  journal={2010 International Conference on Electronics and Information Engineering},
The volatility of the oil future price is extremely complex, therefore an accurate forecasting on oil price is an important and challenging topic. This paper presents a GRNN forecasting model for Brent crude oil price. Careful attention is paid on finding number of features as input data to achieve best performance for model. Also to overcome unforeseen critical conditions, a crisis index is defined. The results show that with appropriate selection of the training data and crisis index, the… CONTINUE READING

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