Modelling the transmission dynamics of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis: application to the 2003 outbreak in Mexico.

@article{Chowell2006ModellingTT,
  title={Modelling the transmission dynamics of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis: application to the 2003 outbreak in Mexico.},
  author={Gerardo Chowell and E. Shim and Fred Brauer and Porfirio D{\'i}az-Due{\~n}as and James M. Hyman and Carlos Castillo-Chavez},
  journal={Statistics in medicine},
  year={2006},
  volume={25 11},
  pages={1840-57}
}
We model an outbreak of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) using a simple epidemic model that includes susceptible, infectious, reported, and recovered classes. The model's framework considers the impact of underreporting and behaviour changes on the transmission rate and is applied to a recent epidemic of AHC in Mexico, using a fit to the cumulative number of cases to estimate model parameters, which agree with those derived from clinical studies. The model predicts a 'mean time from… CONTINUE READING

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Characterization of an outbreak of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis

G Chowell, C Castillo-Chavez, P. Diaz-Duenas
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Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE • 2006
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