Corpus ID: 218673743

# Modelling the spread of Covid19 in Italy using a revised version of the SIR model

title={Modelling the spread of Covid19 in Italy using a revised version of the SIR model},
author={Andrea Palladino and Vincenzo Nardelli and Luigi Giuseppe Atzeni and Nane Cantatore and Maddalena Cataldo and Fabrizio Croccolo and Nicolas Estrada and Antonio Tombolini},
journal={arXiv: Physics and Society},
year={2020}
}
In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a certain time, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ exponentially decays in time, as empirically suggested by world data. Using this model, we were able to reproduce the real behavior of the epidemic with an average error of 5\%. Moreover, we illustrate possible… Expand
8 Citations

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