Modelling the pandemic

  title={Modelling the pandemic},
  author={Devi Sridhar and Maimuna S. Majumder},
Over-reliance on modelling leads to missteps and blind spots in our response 
Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development
A Health Intelligence Framework for Pandemic Response: Lessons from the UK Experience of COVID-19.
It is proposed that pandemics constitute multivector threats meriting attention within a health intelligence framework, employing the processes of information management used by the intelligence sector to illustrate a procedural matrix for guiding public policy during complex health security events.
Logistic Model to Predict the Contagion of Covid-19 in Mexico
With this probabilistic model, it was possible to estimate the degree of contracting Covid -19, taking as a reference the health conditions of the patients, and with it, medically influence to counteract the disease.
A Review of COVID-19 Modelling Strategies in Three Countries to Develop a Research Framework for Regional Areas
A literature review was conducted to summarise knowledge about COVID-19 disease modelling in three countries to develop a robust research framework for the regional areas that are urban and rural health districts of New South Wales, Australia.
Risk of secondary infection waves of COVID-19 in an insular region: the case of the Balearic Islands, Spain
It is shown that the population in the Balearic Islands has not reached the level of herd immunization necessary to prevent future outbreaks, therefore facilitating the propagation of new outbreaks that could lead to secondary waves of COVID-19 in the region.
Risk of Secondary Infection Waves of COVID-19 in an Insular Region: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Spain
It is shown that the estimated number of cases depends strongly on the initial dates of the local outbreak onset and the number of imported cases before the lockdown, therefore facilitating the propagation of new outbreaks that could lead to secondary waves of COVID-19 in the region.
Graphical Models of Pandemic
Both COVID-19 and novel pandemics challenge those of us within the modeling community, specifically in establishing suitable relations between lifecycles, scales, and existing methods. Herein we
Modelling the pandemic: attuning models to their contexts
A more open approach to the modelling of pandemics is proposed which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty and challenges the ‘business-as-usual’ of evidence-based approaches in global health.


Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application
Five global SA methods are investigated and a summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design.
Use of reproducible research practices in public health: A survey of public health analysts
Increasing use of reproducible research practices is important for public health and requires action from researchers, training programs, funders, and journals.
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