Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

  title={Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe},
  author={H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Guis and Cyril Caminade and C. Calvete and Andrew P. Morse and Annelise Tran and Matthew Baylis},
  booktitle={Journal of the Royal Society, Interface},
Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in… CONTINUE READING
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