Modelling and prediction of weekly incidence of influenza A specimens in England and Wales.

@article{Benth2008ModellingAP,
  title={Modelling and prediction of weekly incidence of influenza A specimens in England and Wales.},
  author={Jūratė {\vS}altytė Benth and Dag Hofoss},
  journal={Epidemiology and infection},
  year={2008},
  volume={136 12},
  pages={1658-66}
}
We propose a rather simple model, which fits well the weekly human influenza incidence data from England and Wales. A standard way to analyse seasonally varying time-series is to decompose them into different components. The residuals obtained after eliminating these components often do not reveal time dependency and are normally distributed. We suggest that conclusions should not be drawn only on the basis of residuals and that one should consider the analysis of squared residuals. We show… CONTINUE READING