Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-Like Epidemics

  title={Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-Like Epidemics},
  author={Zdzislaw Burda},
  • Z. Burda
  • Published 28 June 2020
  • Medicine
  • Entropy
We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model simulates three interrelated stochastic processes: epidemic spreading, availability of respiratory ventilators and changes in death statistics. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The first simulates transmission through social contacts in the vicinity of the place of residence while the… 

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