Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births

  title={Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births},
  author={David A. Lam and Jeffrey A. Miron and Ann P Riley},
This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequency, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the… CONTINUE READING


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