Modeling Legionnaires' Disease Outbreaks: Estimating the Timing of an Aerosolized Release Using Symptom-onset Dates

  title={Modeling Legionnaires' Disease Outbreaks: Estimating the Timing of an Aerosolized Release Using Symptom-onset Dates},
  author={Joseph R. Egan and Ian M. Hall and David John Lemon and Steve Leach},
Background: Over the last 30 years, there have been a number of reported Legionnaires' disease outbreaks resulting from the release of causative organisms from aerosol-producing devices. Methods: We model a Legionnaires' disease epidemic curve as the convolution of an infection-time distribution (representing the aerosolized release) and an incubation-period distribution. The model is fitted to symptom-onset data from specific outbreaks to estimate the start and end dates of the release. We… 

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