Modeling Alternative Futures with General Morphological Analysis

@article{Ritchey2011ModelingAF,
  title={Modeling Alternative Futures with General Morphological Analysis},
  author={Tom Ritchey},
  journal={World Future Review},
  year={2011},
  volume={3},
  pages={83 - 94}
}
  • Tom Ritchey
  • Published 1 February 2011
  • Materials Science
  • World Future Review
General morphological analysis (GMA) is a method for systematically structuring and analyzing the total set of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problem complexes. During the past 15 years, GMA has been extended, computerized and applied to long-term strategy management and organizational structuring. It is especially useful for developing scenario models and mapping alternative futures. This article outlines the fundamentals of the morphological approach and… 

Figures from this paper

The term morphology comes from classical Greek (morphê) and means the study of shape or form

  • Computer Science
  • 2020
General Morphological Analysis (GMA) is a method for rigorously structuring and investigating the total set of relationships in non-quantifiable socio-technical problem complexes (variously called

A morphological analysis tool for complex future-oriented scenario researches

TLDR
It is suggested that a morphology-based Delphi technique can support the process of projecting the future in innovation-demanded large problem complexes and can mutually heal theoretical and functional deficits by illustrating transparent value-based arguments in a modifiable iterative manner.

Fuzzy linguistic multicriteria morphological analysis in scenario planning

TLDR
This work focuses on a particular variant known as the MORPHOL method, in which every scenario is evaluated in terms of the probability it eventually arises, and applies Multi-criteria Decision Making to uncover good scenarios according to several criteria jointly including probability.

Using Morphological Table Networks for Modeling Social Disaster Situations

  • I. Savchenko
  • Computer Science
    2018 IEEE First International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (SAIC)
  • 2018
TLDR
The proposed approach is applied to the problem of preventing and mitigating social disasters by using networks of morphological tables for studying problems related to complex, unstructured systems, objects or situations.

Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia

TLDR
A co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), was used to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives and showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future- oriented collaborative approach.

New Approach for Processing Cross-Consistency Matrix in Modified Morphological Analysis Method

  • I. Savchenko
  • Materials Science
    2020 IEEE 2nd International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (SAIC)
  • 2020
In this paper the techniques of processing cross-consistency matrix in modified morphological analysis method are discussed. A new approach that treats configurations of a morphological table as

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

BUILDING AN OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT MODEL USING MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

Achieving success in current and future military operations has become questionable. Whereas the enemy is characterized by a profound character of uncertainty, in terms of shape and location and also

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 30 REFERENCES

Strategic Decision Support using Computerised Morphological Analysis

General Morphological Analysis (GMA), pioneered by Fritz Zwicky at the California Institute of Technology in the 1930s and 40s, was developed as a method for structuring and investigating the total

Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis

TLDR
The historical and theoretical background to GMA as a problem structuring method is given, it is compared with a number of other ‘soft-OR’ methods, and a recent application in structuring a complex policy issue involves the development of an extended producer responsibility system in Sweden.

Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis Adapted from an Article for the UN University Millennium Project : Futures Research Methodology Series

Morphological analysis is a method for rigorously structuring and investigating the total set of relationships in inherently non-quantifiable socio-technical problem complexes (variously called

Fritz Zwicky, Morphologie and Policy Analysis

Fritz Zwicky pioneered the development of morphological analysis (MA) as a method for investigating the totality of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, usually nonquantifiable problem

Typologies As a Unique Form Of Theory Building: Toward Improved Understanding and Modeling

Organizational typologies have proved to be a popular approach for thinking about organizational structures and strategies. Authors developing typologies, however, have been criticized for developing

Field anomaly relaxation

Whole-pattern futures projection, using field anomaly relaxation

Analysis and synthesis: On scientific method – based on a study by bernhard riemann

TLDR
The foundations of analysis and synthesis as scientific methods, and especially the requirements for the successful application of these methods, are dealt with.

The 9th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium

TLDR
The problems of evaluating systems-of-systems from a human-centric approach are discussed by describing the start of a suggested methodology for such an evaluation, and some key issues of such a methodology framework development are discussed.