Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

@article{BekkerNielsenDunbar2019MethodsFC,
  title={Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic},
  author={Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar and Thomas J R Finnie and Barney Sloane and Ian M. Hall},
  journal={PLoS ONE},
  year={2019},
  volume={14}
}
Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework. 

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