Message-passing theory for cooperative epidemics.

  title={Message-passing theory for cooperative epidemics.},
  author={Byungjoon Min and Claudio Castellano},
  volume={30 2},
The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the phenomenology of epidemic spreading, leading, for instance, to abrupt transitions and hysteresis. Here, we consider a simple model for two interacting pathogens on a network and we study it by using the message-passing approach. In this way, we are able to provide… 

Figures from this paper

Competition between vaccination and disease spreading.

The interaction between epidemic spreading and a vaccination process is studied in the framework of mean-field theory finding a rich phase diagram and Numerical simulations for homogeneous random networks agree very well with analytical predictions.

Competition, Collaboration, and Optimization in Multiple Interacting Spreading Processes

For the first time dynamic message-passing equations are derived that provide an exact description of the dynamics of two interacting spreading processes on tree graphs, and systematic low-complexity models are developed that predict the spread on general graphs.

Generating functions for message-passing on weighted networks: directed bond percolation and SIR epidemics

The percolation threshold that the SIR model predicts is a rigorous lower bound to the threshold on real networks, and for large, locally treelike networks, the predictions agree very well with the numerical data.

Identifying influential subpopulations in metapopulation epidemic models using message-passing theory.

This study derives the message-passing theory for metapopulation modeling and proposes a method to determine influential spreaders and identifies the most dangerous city as a potential seed of a pandemic when applied to real-world data.

Vaccination with partial transmission and social distancing on contact networks

It is found that vaccination with partial transmission still provides herd immunity and it is shown how the herd immunity threshold depends upon the assortativity between nodes of different transmissibility.

Double transitions and hysteresis in heterogeneous contagion processes.

A double phase transition exhibiting a continuous transition and a subsequent discontinuous jump in the fraction of adopted nodes is found because of the heterogeneity in adoption thresholds.

Coupled effects of epidemic information and risk awareness on contagion

A theoretical analysis indicates that people's misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people's self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability.

The Nature of Complex Networks

This book combines features of an advanced textbook, a reference book and a detailed review of the current state of the art of complex networks, paying particular attention to the recently developed directions, methods, and techniques.

Creative destruction: collisions and redundancy generate emergent sparseness on the mammal connectome

A novel interaction is described that shows how nonlinear collision rules can result in efficient activity dynamics on simulated mammal brain networks and suggests network topology supports IS routing.

Interplay between degree and Boolean rules in the stability of Boolean networks.

It is found that negatively correlated sensitivity with respect to local degree enhances the stability of Boolean networks against external perturbations.



Mutually cooperative epidemics on power-law networks

It is shown that, when the second moment of the degree distribution is finite, the epidemic transition is continuous for low cooperativity, while it is discontinuous when cooperativity is sufficiently high, and that for scale-free networks, the transition is always continuous.

Effect of network clustering on mutually cooperative coinfections.

It is shown that for large cooperativity the epidemic transition is always abrupt, with the discontinuity decreasing as clustering is increased, and for large clustering strong finite-size effects are present and the discontinuous nature of the transition is manifest only in large networks.

Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks.

This work treats analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network and compares the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

Identifying an influential spreader from a single seed in complex networks via a message-passing approach

The problem of finding important spreaders is directly tackled by solving analytically the expected size of epidemic outbreaks when spreading originates from a single seed using a message-passing approach and the approach can be successfully adapted into weighted networks.

Leveraging percolation theory to single out influential spreaders in networks

It is proved that the recently introduced nonbacktracking centrality is the optimal criterion for the identification of influential spreaders in locally tree-like networks at criticality and is a highly reliable metric to identify top influential spreader also in generic graphs not embedded in space and for noncritical spreading.

Message passing approach for general epidemic models.

  • B. KarrerM. Newman
  • Computer Science
    Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
  • 2010
A generalized version of the susceptible-infected-recovered model of epidemic disease that allows for arbitrary distributions of transmission and recovery times is studied and it is shown that the calculation gives a rigorous bound on the size of disease outbreaks.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks

A heterogeneous mean-field approach is developed that allows for the calculation of the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small.

Phase transitions in cooperative coinfections: Simulation results for networks and lattices.

We study the spreading of two mutually cooperative diseases on different network topologies, and with two microscopic realizations, both of which are stochastic versions of a

Outbreaks of coinfections: the critical role of cooperativity

This letter introduces a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type which explicitly incorporates the effect of cooperative coinfection, and argues that the results are obtained in a mean-field model using rate equations and should hold also in more general frameworks.