Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants

@article{Holston2017MeasuringTN,
  title={Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants},
  author={K. Holston and T. Laubach and J. Williams},
  journal={Journal of International Economics},
  year={2017},
  volume={108},
  pages={59-75}
}
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach–Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth… Expand
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