Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

@article{Holston2016MeasuringTN,
  title={Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants},
  author={K. Holston and T. Laubach and J. Williams},
  journal={Economic Growth eJournal},
  year={2016}
}
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend… Expand
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